Can ChatGPT include a reliable confidence score with its responses?

It's not currently possible to have ChatGPT output an explicit “confidence level” alongside its responses in a reliable way. Here’s why:

1. Underlying Probabilities Aren’t Directly Mapped:
   The model computes token probabilities during generation. While these probabilities indicate how likely a token is to appear next, they don’t directly translate into a general confidence score for the entire answer.

2. Calibration Challenges:
   Research on model calibration shows that language models can be miscalibrated—meaning high-probability outputs might still be incorrect. Simply exposing token probabilities or a derived confidence score could misleadingly suggest more certainty than warranted.

3. Technical and UI Considerations:
   While it’s theoretically possible to design a system that estimates a form of confidence based on internal metrics or auxiliary models, integrating such a mechanism into a conversational interface like ChatGPT would require additional development and careful validation to ensure it’s informative and not misleading.

4. Focus on Responsible Use:
   For now, the design of ChatGPT emphasizes that users verify crucial or sensitive information from authoritative sources rather than relying solely on an inferred confidence metric.

In summary, adding a reliable confidence level isn’t straightforward due to the inherent uncertainties in the model’s probability outputs and calibration issues. Researchers continue to work on these challenges, so future improvements might address aspects of this feedback in a controlled manner.